In case you missed it!

Although I enjoy putting my own, sometimes random, thoughts relating to the NFL here on 47yards.blog I also write for ninetynineyards.com and I’ve concentrated recent efforts on there. Thought it would be worth linking up and providing links to my recent @99YDS work.

First up my recent preview of the NFL divisions as I see them at this point in time. I’m really excited about what the West has to offer, in both the AFC and NFC. I think their inter-divisional match ups will be among the most intriguing and exciting next season.

Part 1 – Go West! (NFC West) http://ninetynineyards.com/2020/06/25/ranking-the-nfl-divisions-go-west/

Part 2 – The Wild Wild West (AFC West) http://ninetynineyards.com/2020/07/02/west/

Part 3 – Best of the Rest http://ninetynineyards.com/2020/07/10/ranking-each-remaining-nfl-division/

I’ve also been interested in how teams and coaches go about building a “Championship Culture”. I put together an article based on interviews Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks  held on their “Move The Sticks” podcast last autumn with several high profile head coaches. It was fascinating how the principles in building a football team could translate to pretty much any team situation, whether sport or in the workplace.

The article “Building a Championship Culture” can be found at http://ninetynineyards.com/2020/06/16/building-a-championship-culture-by-mark-jeffrey/

Hope you might find something interesting in amongst these as we wait for the start of the next NFL season!

 

 

 

The @47yards Quantum Leap Edition – 2010-2019

Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s I was a fan of Quantum Leap. For those of you who don’t remember it, or it was before your time, the premise was one of time-travel where the main character, Dr Sam Beckett (Scott Bakula) ‘leapt’ through time righting various wrongs with only a hologram of his friend Al (the brilliant Dean Stockwell) appearing to help him solve what he needed to do to leap again, trying to get home.

Reminded of the premise the other day I wondered about instances in the NFL over the last decade. Games are won and lost by the smallest of margins, sometimes on one decision. So, how might the last decade have looked if we make a few small changes, concentrating solely on playoff games.

February 5th 2012 – Super Bowl 46

NY Giants 21 – 17 New England Patriots (4th Qtr 0:05)

Watch this final play back. The Patriots are down by 4 after Ahmad Bradshaw had ‘fallen’ into the end zone for a Giants TD with 0:57 left on the clock. Conscious of leaving Tom Brady enough time to strike back, the New England Patriots defense had parted like the red sea to allow Bradshaw to run in from 6 yards out unchallenged.

Brady, starting on the Patriots 20 yards line, had managed somehow (in the midst of incompletions and a sack from Justin Tuck) to engineer one final hail-mary shot at a miracle finale. On the final play he evades the Giants token 3-man rush and hurls a bomb which is up for grabs in the endzone. Giants defenders deflect the initial throw but the ball then falls to the ground barely out of the finger tip grasp of Rob Gronkowski.

What if Gronk had stretched a little further or anticipated the deflection a fraction of a second earlier? The result could have been one of the most memorable final plays in Super Bowl history. BTW as a Giants fan this one hurts me to even contemplate!

New Result: NY Giants 21 – 24 New England Patriots

Let’s leap on!

January 11th 2015 – NFC Divisional Round

Dallas Cowboys 21 – 26 Green Bay Packers (4th Qtr 4:50)

It’s a catch. You know what I am talking about. The Cowboys are at the Packers 33 yard line with a 4th and 2, and they are going for it. Tony Romo, ever the gunslinger, eschews any thought of a short yardage gain for the first down. He sends a jump ball to Dez Bryant who catches it while falling to the ground with the Packers defensive back, and rolls into the endzone. Somehow it is ruled as he was not in control of the catch. I’m a Giants fan and I think it was a catch!

He could have been ruled down at about the 2-yard line but the Cowboys still punch it in, and I’m taking them to see the game out and advancing to the NFC Championship game.

New Result: Dallas Cowboys 29 – 26 Green Bay Packers

But there is more to do in 2015.

February 1st 2015 – Super Bowl 49

New England Patriots 28 – 24 Seattle Seahawks (4th Qtr 0:26)

So, sorry Cowboys fans but after beating the Packers in the divisional round I still think the Seahawks, the reigning champions after their destruction of the Denver Broncos 12 months earlier, face the Patriots.

Again, we all know where I am going here. This was a great Super Bowl. A real back-n-forth as first the Patriots led, then the Seahawks were up by 10 in the second half. The Patriots dominate the 4th quarter with 14 unanswered points to lead by 4. Finally, Seattle drive to the Patriots 2-yard line and with 2nd and goal call a pass play, a quick slant, which Malcolm Butler reads, intercepts, game over.

I have huge respect for Pete Carroll and the job he has done at Seattle but he is surely 1 playcall away from another Super Bowl ring. Let’s give the ball to Marshawn Lynch, he gets the 2 yards. The Seattle Seahawks have consecutive Super Bowl victories.

New Result: New England Patriots 28 – 31 Seattle Seahawks

Where next? Oh yes, 2017

February 5th 2017 – Super Bowl 51

New England Patriots 20 – 28 Atlanta Falcons (4th Qtr 4:40)

For three quarters the Atlanta Falcons were imperious. It wasn’t a contest. If it was a title fight the Patriots had received the standing 8 count from the referee and were one punch away from being KO’d. Then the comeback began and you could see the contender start to buckle as the more experienced champion summoned up all they had not and refused to be defeated.

However, even after 17 points were clawed back, the Falcons found themselves 1st and 10 with 4:40 left on the clock at the Patriots 22-yard line. Even if Matt Ryan had knelt down 3 times they could have kicked the field goal to go 11 points clear with possibly around 3:30 left. Instead, following a sack and a holding penalty they found themselves 3rd and 33, now out of field goal range. The Patriots sensed blood in the water, the Falcons were broken.

The 2016-17 Atlanta Falcons were an outstanding team and would have been worthy winners of Super Bowl 51. Let’s change the playcalling on that fateful drive, they kick the field goal and although the Patriots score another TD it is Atlanta lifting the trophy.

New Result: New England Patriots 28 – 31 Atlanta Falcons

Here’s where it gets fun – lots to change in 2018 so it’s a quickfire round!

January 13th and 14th – NFC Divisional Round
First of all it is sorry to Minnesota Vikings fans. The Minneapolis Miracle doesn’t happen. With 10 seconds left, on their own 39 yard line, 3rd and 10, but this time Saints Safety Marcus Williams concentrates on tackling Stefan Diggs in-bounds and time expires. The amazing Case Keenum show ends here.

January 21st – AFC Championship Round
In almost identical fashion to the previous year’s Super Bowl, the Patriots toyed with a pretender to the throne. Blake Bortles and the Jaguars largely dominated the first three quarters, which is never enough. The Jaguars ad taken part in one of the best divisional round games I’ve seen the week before as they and the Steelers had ‘duked’ out a 45-42 classic. Against the Patriots though the Jags dried up on offense as the game progressed. At the end it was a brilliantly batted down ball from Stephon Gillmore which sealed the Patriots progression. This time he doesn’t quite make it, the completion is made and the Jaguars win out.

What would this do to Super Bowl 52? Who would the Jaguars play? I’m going with the Saints as they struggles past the Falcons in the divisional round and I think the Saints would have edged them. If this was to play out I think the New Orleans Saints would walk off with Super Bowl 52.

There is one more Super Bowl I think I need to save…..on to 2019

January 13th 2019 – NFC Championship

LA Rams 20 – 20 New Orleans Saints (4th Qtr 1:48)

What did the officials see? Nothing, clearly. Everyone else did. Known as the “worst no call in NFL playoff history”. The Saints are 3rd and 10 at the Rams 13-yard line. The Rams only have 1 timeout remaining. Drew Brees finds Tommylee Lewis on the sideline or at least he would have done if Rams corner Nickell Robey-Coleman hadn’t slammed him mid-air before the ball arrived. Clearcut pass interference, at the very least. It should have been Saints 1st and goal with 1:45 left which would have given them scope to run the clock down before kicking a game winning field goal – or the opportunity to run in a TD.

In watching the video back the irony is that Coleman could have waited a split second and tackled Lewis fairly and out of bounds, about 3 yards short of the first down. Sean Payton would have then had to decide whether to go for it or kick the field goal. Either way, I hated the call (or non-call) so my yellow flag is thrown to the ground.

New Result: LA Rams 20 – 23 New Orleans Saints

This would have resulted in a Saints vs Patriots Super Bowl 53, Brees vs Brady. It would have been more of a classic than the 13-3 result. Remember in my alternate universe the Saints won in 2018 so I’m giving them 2 in a row winning Super Bowl 53.

So, there we have it, a rewritten history for the last decade of NFL Playoffs. Unsurprisingly, the Patriots are the team most affected by my time travel exercise. Three titles taken away but one added. I think it shows just how ruthless they have been in playoff football, often capitalising on individual moments in games on the biggest stage. They know how to win.

Seahawks and Saints fans should be happy as I’ve created mini-dynasties for them with both achieving back-to-back victories. Again, these are two of the strongest NFC franchises of the last 10 years but it demonstrates how close you can get to a title, to within touching distance, before having victory swiped away from you. And the Falcons don’t capitulate from 28-3 up.

How would you change NFL history by a split-second here or an inch there? It could all have been so different, the beauty of competitive sport. I wonder what 2020-21 has in store for us…….

47 Yards – 2020 NFL Draft (Mock 2.0)

Following on from the 4-part Mock Draft 1.0 I decided to revisit my thoughts with a little over a week to go to the, now virtual, draft.

Once again I used the ProFootball Network Mock Simulator https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/Trades which is particularly useful when it comes to working out whether your trade ideas have a remote chance of happening for real.

For this version I also tried to play out a notably different set of circumstances from the first mock to see how early trade impact on the selections later on in round one.

We start with the Miami Dolphins making a major move up from 5th to 1st (via Detroit at 3) which completely shakes up the top 10 picks. This is based on a scenario where Joe Burrow does not want to end up in Cincinnati and the Bengals have to make the best of the situation. They still come out with their next franchise QB and an additional first round pick, so not all is lost.
1. Miami Dolphins – Joe Burrow QB, LSU
(previous picks in the brackets – for the Dolphins this was Tua)
It is pretty much nailed on, for me at least, that the Dolphins are going to take a quarterback with their first pick. The consensus has been that, with Ryan Fitzpatrick a very capable starter for 2020, they can pick someone who sits for a year (hence the link to Tua). However, they are also the team with the draft capital (including additional 2021 picks) to go all the way to the first pick to take Burrow. The deal went down as follows.

The Bengals are only content if they fall to #3 so the Dolphins have to deal with the Lions first and then Cincinnati.

TRADE
MIA #5 & #39 for DET #3

MIA #3, #18, #56 #154, #173 (plus a 2021 1st and 2nd round pick)
2. Washington Redskins – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
(1.0 – Tristan Wirfs)
In the last draft it was Washington dealing with Miami but for this second mock the Redskins are content to sit second and take potentially the best prospect in this year’s draft.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
(1.0 – Joe Burrow)
So the Bengals miss out on Burrow but they are able to secure Justin Herbert. In this scenario I think Herbert is a good fit in Cincinnati. He could learn from (and push) Andy Dalton and this may be viewed as a safer pick than Tua or Love (potentially lower ceiling but higher floor). A controversial pick but could be making the best of things if played out this way.

4. New York Giants TRADE
In this scenario the Chargers watch as the first 2 QBs are off the board inside three picks. This may stir them into action and it would not necessarily take much to deal with the Giants and move up 2 spots, just to be sure. Tua slots in nicely behind Tyrod Taylor (to start the season at least) and is a great draw for the now LA-based Chargers franchise.

LA Chargers – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama LAC #6 & #37 for NYG #4
(1.0 Justin Herbert)

5. Detroit Lions – Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
(1.0 – Chase Young)
First time around Chase Young fell into the Lions lap at #3 but here we see them drop to #5, Young is gone but they are still able to select a player who is consistently mocked to them, making up for the loss of Darius Slay – plus watch out for them then trading back into round 1 later….

6. NY Giants – Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
(1.0 – Isaiah Simmons)
Dave Gettlemen seems to have a straight choice and whichever way he goes (top tackle or Simmons is the consensus) he probably upsets half the Giants fan base. This time I have gone with what feels more like a Gettlemen pick, and the need at RT is apparent.

7. Carolina Panthers – Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson
(1.0 – Jeffrey Okudah)
Carolina still pick up a new key defensive piece and Simmons feels like a Panthers (and Matt Rhule) type player, fast and aggressive. It’s a nice fit.

8. Arizona Cardinals – Tristan Wirfs, T/G, Iowa
(1.0 – Mekhi Becton)
Staying on the O-line for the Cardinals with a slight switch to Wirfs, solely because of this versatility and the ability to kick-inside to guard if necessary.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
(1.0 – Derrick Brown)
No change for the Jaguars – staying with Brown, a great way to start rebuilding this defense with a Calais Campbell type replacement.

10. Cleveland Browns – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
(1.0 – Andrew Thomas)
Another O-line pick but as Becton is still available this time around the Browns take him over Andrew Thomas. Size over technique take here.

11. New York Jets – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
(1.0 – CeeDee Lamb)

12. Las Vegas Raiders – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
(1.0 – Jerry Jeudy)

13. 49ers – Javon Kinlaw, DT, S. Carolina
(1.0 – Javon Kinlaw)

With picks 11 through 13 I see no reason for any changes. I see Lamb and Jeudy as the first two receivers off the board (with Henry Ruggs II close behind), and Kinlaw is a great replacement for DeForest Buckner using the pick they got from the Colts in the trade.

14. Tampa Bay Buccanneers – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
(1.0 – Jedrick Wills)
This completes the re-ordering of the four top offensive tackles and the Bucs get probably the best technician of the four to help protect Tom Brady.

15. Denver Broncos – Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
(1.0 – CJ Henderson)
Mulled this one over after the first mock draft and it just did not excite me for Denver. I’ve swapped their picks this time around (WR first then CB) and look what they get – now this is exciting!

16. Atlanta Falcons – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
(1.0 – K’Lavon Chaisson)
Same again here for the Falcons. defense will be the focus and Chaisson is a great start in improving that side of the roster.

17. Dallas Cowboys – CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
(1.0 – Xavier McKinney)
Another situation where I was not 100% comfortable with the pick last time. Stayed in the secondary but as CJ Henderson is available this time around I’ll take him over McKinney. Helps to make up for missing Byron Jones.

18. Cincinnati Bengals (pick gained from Miami) – AJ Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa
This is the additional pick the Bengals have picked up from the earlier trade and they use it to upgrade at another key position. First pick they got their QB so with this pick they get some help to get after everyone else’s.

19. Las Vegas Raiders – AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
(1.0 Jordan Love)
Last time around the Raiders used their second pick to go for Jordan Love. This time they pass on Love and go after another Clemson CB to partner with Travyon Mullen. Vegas could be a no-fly zone….

20. Jacksonville Jaguars – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
(1.0 – Kenneth Murray)

21. Philadelphia Eagles Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
(1.0 – Justin Jefferson)

For the next two picks it is ‘as you were’ with the Jags and Eagles more than happy to have Murray and Jefferson fall into their respective laps.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
(1.0 – Henry Ruggs III)
In version 1.0 the Vikings hopped up 3 spots to take Henry Ruggs, this time he is long gone so the Vikings focus on the secondary and wait for their receiver (more later on that). I think Johnson is going to gatecrash round one above some of the other highly rated CBs (and I doubt they take another Diggs….)

23. New England Patriots – TRADE to Detroit Lions – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
We get to the Patriots and they have to deal. They don’t have much by way of early picks and the Detroit Lions (with ex-defensive coordinator Matt Patricia) have an offer which gives the Patriots an additional high 3rd rounder and the cost is only to slip into the top of round 2.

With the additional pick the Lions take a player with a really high ceiling but little experience (which is why I think the Patriots are happy to trade back).

24. New Orleans Saints – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
(1.0 Jeff Gladney)
No change for the Saints as they pick up a real physical cornerback which will be an upgrade on Eli Apple.

25. Minnesota Vikings – Denzel Mimms, WR, Baylor
(1.0 – Jaylon Johnson)
As mentioned earlier, in this scenario I’ve switched the positions the Vikings target and go for cornerback first (so they still get Johnson) and then they can get one over on NFC North divisional rivals Green Bay. The Packers will also be after a wide receiver and by taking Mimms the Vikings steal a potential target away.

26. Miami Dolphins – Austin Jackson OT, USC
(1.0 – D’Andrew Swift)
The Dolphins have secured Joe Burrow in this mock so the next step is to provide some additional protection in the form of Jackson. A running back could still have been a possibility but they could pick one up day 2.

27. Seattle Seahawks TRADE
In recent days it has been mentioned that in amongst all the possible unknowns of this year’s draft the one (near) certainty is that Seattle will trade down. It happens a lot. The Seahawks like to increase their number of picks and find gold on days 2 and 3. Here they trade with the Colts who jump up to take their QB of the future to sit behind Philip Rivers.

IND #34 & #75 for SEA #27

The Indianapolis Colts select – Jordan Love, QB, Utah

28. Baltimore Ravens – Zack Baun, EDGE, Wisconsin
(1.0 – Patrick Queen)
In the first mock Patrick Queen was available but he is long gone this time around. Zack Baun is a more than useful back up plan here to add to the Ravens pass rush.

29. Tennessee Titans – Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia
(1.0 – Ezra Cleveland)
Same position but a change in name. Wilson is a name shooting up various boards and looking back this is a better fit (I think) for Wilson to plug in at RT, replacing Jack Conklin.

30. Green Bay Packers – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
(1.0 – Denzel Mimms)
The Vikings have taken Denzel Mimms away this time around but I still focus on wide receiver for the Packers. Reagor is still a top quality receiver and would make a great target for Aaron Rodgers.

31. San Francisco 49ers TRADE
As with my first mock I expect the 49ers to trade down and I still feel the Broncos are prime candidates to be the trade partner.

DEN #46, #77 & #118 for SF #31

For the Broncos (similar to the Vikings) I’ve switched which position they address first. Henry Ruggs is already onboard so it is at cornerback they focus with the second pick, particularly as there could be a run on that position late in round 1. Denver take the next best CB.

Denver Broncos select Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

32. Kansas City Chiefs – Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
(1.0 – AJ Terrell)
Swings and roundabout for the Chiefs here. Their previous selection, AJ Terrell, is off the board but this means they can focus on shoring up that run defense, in which case Blacklock will do nicely.

Running through this mock and playing out those early trades in the top 6 picks has a ripple effect further down round one. There are only about half a dozen instances where teams choose the same player in both mocks, proving you better have, at least, a plan B for your first round pick. Also there are five new names late on (Blacklock, Fulton, Reagor, Wilson and Jackson) at the expense of Shenault JR, Cleveland, Ruiz, Swift and McKinney.

That’s me done for mock drafts for this year. Just going to sit back, watch and enjoy now! Hope your team gets your guy!

NFL Mock Draft 2020 Round 1 – part 4 (picks 25-32)

The end is in sight! Part 4 of my look at round 1 of the NFL Draft and we are into the final 8 picks. Some teams have already picked twice, some not at all. The top 4 wide receivers have all gone from the board but I think there is at least a 5th in these last few picks. Plus a few of last year’s top teams look for those elusive pieces which will help them challenge again next season.

Throughout this mock draft I’ve used the PFN Mock Draft Simulator to help work out potential trades and scenarios – https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

25. Minnesota Vikings “Free hit”

This is the Vikings second pick after they traded up to #19 to secure Henry Ruggs. With their second pick of the round they are free to take a defensive player to try and offset the losses in free agency. I think they will look to the secondary and another cornerback will come off the board – the question is which one? Three possibilities here I think – AJ Terrell, Kristian Fulton or Jaylon Johnson and I’m going with the latter as the best shutdown corner available here.

With the 25th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Minnesota Vikings select, Jaylon Johnson, cornerback, Utah.
26. Miami Dolphins “Build that offense”

The Dolphins are dipping in for the 2nd time here after moving up for Tua and dealing away pick 18 to the Redskins. Remember that trade also dealt away pick 39 so they will have to sit and wait after this until the bottom of the 2nd round. They might be open for business here with a team like the Texans or Bears – both of whom have 2x 2nd rounders but nothing in the first.

However, I think they should just go and get their running back to compliment Tua as and when he is starting. It is becoming less fashionable to take a running back in round 1 but it is a need for Miami even with Jordan Howard coming in from Philly in free agency.

So, with the 26th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Miami Dolphins select, D’Andre Swift, running back, Georgia.
27 Seattle Seahawks “What does Russ need?”

Picks (7) – 27, 59, 64, 101, 133, 144, 214

Seattle are set up quite nicely in terms of picks with two second rounders to follow this pick so I don’t see them trading – unlike last year where John Schneider, Seahawks GM, went trade happy to somehow turn 4 picks into 11. However, their later picks will probably put them out of range of the next level of offensive tackles or the premier interior linemen.

I’m going to pair them up with taking the first center off the board although they could quite easily go for the tackle spot.

With the 27th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Seattle Seahawks select, Cesar Ruiz, center, Michigan.
28 Baltimore Ravens “Use the window”

Picks (8) – 28, 55, 60, 92, 129, 134, 170, 225

The Ravens are in good shape but they cannot afford to rest on their laurels. Lamar Jackson is still in his rookie contract for now and they had an offense few teams could answer during the 2019 season. Defensively though they have had to use the franchise tag on Matthew Judon, so with some uncertainty there it provides the opportunity to go for a linebacker in round 1. And it just so happens there is a great one available at #28.

With the 28th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Baltimore Ravens select, Patrick Queen, linebacker, LSU.
29 Tennessee Titans “Trade away into 2nd?”

Picks (6) – 29, 61, 93, 174, 224, 243

The Titans are not blessed with many picks this year so they may well be open for business and trade down into the top of the second round. I like the idea of them trading with Detroit – a team I highlighted in part 1 as being under pressure to nail the draft. On PFN this could happen with the Lions offering up #35 and #67 (top of round 3) in order to secure the Titans #29.

However, the Titans will feel the loss of starting right tackle, Jack Conklin, and I think they may simply do the obvious in order to keep those running lanes open for Derrick Henry and to continue the renaissance of Ryan Tannehill. Looking at who has gone from the tackle class I think one player has been climbing boards of late and may just sneak into round 1.

With the 29th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Tennessee Titans select, Ezra Cleveland, offensive tackle, Boise State.
30 Green Bay Packers “Make Aaron happy”

Picks (10) – 30, 62, 94, 136, 175, 192, 208, 209, 236, 242

As we progress through round one it is not always easy to see which direction a team might go in as there are so many variables at play. Then there comes a team where you, at least, think it is obvious what they need to do. The Packers wide receiver corps is thin, and it needs a stud. I think the Packers can sit tight in round 1 and then right at the end here a 5th wide receiver gets his name called out. This is another player whose stock has rocketed in recent months and this is a pick which will make Aaron Rodgers very happy indeed – for a while at least.

With the 30th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Green Bay Packers select, Denzel Mimms, wide receiver, Baylor.
31 San Francisco 49ers “Open for business second time round”

Remember that the 49ers have already selected courtesy of the 13th pick from the DeForest Buckner trade. John Lynch and his team should be very happy with the result (Javon Kinlaw as a like for like replacement). They can now sit and wait for the phone to ring from a team looking to get up into the back end of round one.

Again I think there will be a few suitors for the pick including the Texans and Lions but actually the team that I think has capital it could use here is the Denver Broncos. Imagine the two John’s (Lynch and Elway) get on the phone and hammer out the following deal.

TRADE! – SF #31 for DEN #46, #77, #118 (verified by PFN mock simulator)

What could the Broncos do with the extra pick? Back when I mocked their original pick (CJ Henderson) I was aware that wide receiver was another position of need. With all the picks at their disposal they could wait until the second or third round but what if they wanted to make sure they got a quality wideout with the first 5 having already gone. Here we go then with the sixth wide receiver off the board in round one and it is a hometown pick for the Broncos!

With the 31st pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Denver Broncos select, Laviska Shenault JR, wide receiver, Colorado.

I know his stock has fallen of late when he was injured during the combine which impacted his stats but he is a tough physical receiver with plenty of ability in yards after catch. The Broncos met with him at the combine and I think his versatility and competitiveness will appeal to Elway and co.
32 Kansas City Chiefs “Champions next move?”

Picks (5) – 32, 63, 96, 138, 177

The Chiefs are in a similar position to the 49ers one place above them. They may find some value in trading down into the second round in order to gain additional picks. If this were to happen then, unlike the 49ers, I doubt it would be with divisional rivals the Broncos.

For now, I’m going to leave the Chiefs here at #32 and I think they will look to the defense and it could either be for a cornerback (to offset the loss of Kendall Fuller in free agency) or it could be to shore up the run defense which was ranked 29th by DVOA last year. Looking at who is left on the board it was a toss up between Kristian Fulton (who I’d acknowledge has slipped down this mock scenario – I like him as a solid corner but not a 1st rounder) AJ Terrell (who I think is on the rise on some boards due to his toughness and aggressive play) or on the defensive line – Neville Gallimore, Ross Blacklock or Marlon Davison (I think the latter two fit Kansas 4-3 scheme better).

Ultimately I think Kansas can dip back in at #63 to find a player to help the run defense but you should take your cornerback soon as you can and Terrell’s versatility and toughness tip the balance for me.

So, with the 32nd and final pick of the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft the Kansas City Chiefs select, AJ Terrell, cornerback,

And that’s it – all done, 32 picks made. Players who can dramatically change the fortunes of their new team. It has been a lot of fun working through my thoughts on each team – now I doubt that a lot of what I’ve put may end up happening but hopefully I’ve been able to articulate why I have made those choices. Can’t wait for draft night!

NFL Mock Draft 2020 Round 1 – part 3 (picks 17-24)

In part 3 of this look at my mock of round 1 of the NFL Draft we delve into what happens when the 4 best offensive tackles have flown off the board and the run on the top quality wide receivers has begun. In picks 17-24 I think we see at least another trade and a situation where divisional rivalry is also in play for the NFC East.

Throughout this mock draft I’ve used the PFN Mock Draft Simulator to help work out potential trades and scenarios – https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

17. Dallas Cowboys “Play the hand you’re dealt”

Picks (7) – 17, 51, 82, 123, 164, 179, 231

The predicted Dallas Cowboys free agency drama did not materialise. They look as though they will get the deal done with Dak Prescott, although the price goes up the longer it takes. That will eat into cap space later down the line but for now they have got that plus the Amari Cooper deals sorted. They don’t have a ton of draft capital and I expect them to just play the board how it lies and take what they need to supplement a solid roster. The secondary is likely to be the first port of call, particularly in light of losing Byron Jones to the Dolphins and Jeff Heath to the Raiders.

I had a tough time here deciding whether they went for a cornerback or safety so i settled on who, at this point, I think is the better overall player.

So with the 17th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft the Dallas Cowboys select, Xavier McKinney, safety, Alabama.
18. Washington Redskins “A little spite store?”

Remember from part 1 the Redskins acquired this pick from the Dolphins in the trade which took Miami up from #5 to #2 in order to get Tua.

If this did happen they could now use the additional first round pick to spite a divisional rival, the Eagles. The Redskins know that Philly needs wide receiver help but how about Washington take another star wideout off the board before their rival is anywhere near on the clock. However, with so many other needs on the roster and a deep wide receiver class which could be revisited later, I think they go with another need, on the EDGE.

So, with the 18th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Washington Redskins select, AJ Epenesa, edge rusher, Iowa.
19. Las Vegas Raiders “Time to trade?”

We are on the Raiders second pick after they took Jerry Jeudy in trading up from #12 to #10. They could now do with acquiring some draft capital back and they may feel able to drift down a few spots in order to pick up a second rounder where traditional, certainly as a commentator, Mike Mayock has always thought there was good value picks to be had.

Step forward the Minnesota Vikings. They have an additional first round pick courtesy of the Buffalo Bills trade for Stefon Diggs. The Vikings can offer the Raiders a suitable second rounder and leapfrog the Eagles (another team in need of a star wideout) to get their guy.

TRADE – LV #19 for MIN #22 and #58 (verified by PFN mock simulator)

When they do get round to pick #22 the question there will be for Gruden and Mayock will be: how much to the love Jordan Love? This is around the time in the draft I think Love might go – either late in the 1st or early 2nd round. Having mulled this over quite a lot I reckon it will be the Raiders, ever the gamblers, who take Love. After all, in a season or two who doesn’t want to see Mahomes versus Love a couple of times a year?

With the 22nd pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders select, Jordan Love, Quarterback, Utah.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars “A nice spot to be in”

Another team on its second pick and the Jags have plenty of later round pick to simply sit here and take who they like most. I think it will be linebacker and it could be a toss up between Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen. I’m going with the more proven performer, Murray.

So, with the 20th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select, Kenneth Murray, linebacker, Oklahoma.
21. Philadelphia Eagles “Sat waiting”

Picks (8) – 21, 53, 103, 127, 145, 146, 166, 190

The Eagles are a very settled unit at the moment and a very well run organisation. They made a silk purse out of a sow’s ear last year when players were trooping on a weekly basis into the injury tent. In free agency they have made a nice job of rebuilding in the secondary which was a weak spot last season. However, they remain thin at the wide receiver position and this is one they should address in the draft. The problem will be who is left once we get to pick #21? The Eagles have little to offer in terms of a trade unless they start to offer high 2021 picks into the bargain (which is a possibility). However, in this mock they do still have a day 1 value receiver on the board they can be pleased with securing.

With the 21st pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select, Justin Jefferson, wide receiver, LSU.
22. Minnesota Vikings “Replacing Diggs”

Picks (12) – 22, 25, 58, 89, 105, 132, 155, 201, 205, 239, 249, 253, (WR, CB, EDGE)

As explained above, the Vikings have both the draft capital available and the need (to replace Stefon Diggs) so I am simply joining the dots here. Yes, there are other needs on the defensive side of the ball but pick #25 is ready and waiting to start addressing that. The ability to jump a couple of spots and steal a march on sides in need is very appealing.

So (remembering they have jumped up to 19) with the #19 pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select, Henry Ruggs III, wide receiver, Alabama.
23. New England Patriots “Life after Tom”

Picks (13) – 23, 87, 98, 100, 125, 172, 195, 204, 212, 213, 230, 235, 241

The Patriots are awash with draft picks, as a result of their oft quoted strategy of allowing high price veterans to leave, usually when they are just starting to dip in terms of performance. The same has been true of this free agency period with the likes of Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and, of course, Tom Brady exiting the building.

It will be incredibly intriguing to see how the Patriots map their way through the draft and further down the line I would expect to see a number of the later round picks bundled up in order to gain some additional picks across rounds 2-4. However, I expect them to stay put in round 1 and start to rebuild to offset the losses on defense.

With the 23rd pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the New England Patriots select, Zack Baun, edge rusher, Wisconsin.
24. New Orleans Saints “For now or later?”

Picks (5) – 24, 88, 130, 169, 203

The Saints remain one of the powerhouses of the NFC and with the return of Drew Brees for one last crack at another Super Bowl title with Head Coach Sean Payton they are most definitely in ‘win now’ mode. There could be scope for trading down whereas they do not own much by way of picks and there could be a scenario where they trade with a team which has no first rounders but two 2nd rounders such as the Houston Texans or Chicago Bears. That scenario would not surprise me come draft day.

However, taking into account the need to push for a championship let’s leave them at pick 24 and try to secure one of the final pieces in their roster puzzle. Let’s hand them a real physical cornerback.

With the 24th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the New Orleans Saints select, Jeff Gladney, cornerback, TCU.

So that’s 24 down and 8 picks left to go. Now we are getting to the teams who will be hoping to return to the playoffs next year and probably have one major need – will the right players still be there for them to take with their all-important 1st round pick.

NFL Mock Draft 2020 Round 1 – part 2 (picks 9-16)

In part 2 of this look at my mock of round 1 of the NFL Draft we have a situation where three QBs have gone (Burrow, Tua and Herbert) but none of the talented wide receiver class have been selected. This is about to change with picks 9-16….

Throughout this mock draft I’ve used the PFN Mock Draft Simulator to help work out potential trades and scenarios – https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

9. Jacksonville Jaguars “Capital to play with”

Picks (12) – 9, 20, 42, 73, 116, 137, 140, 157, 165, 189, 206, 223,

Another team in reboot and with a Head Coach / GM combination (Doug Marrone / David Caldwell) under significant pressure to improve on the 2019 season (4th place 6-10). In free agency they’ve been forced to swallow dead money to move on from Nick Foles which has proved an expensive mis-step. They seem united on offense behind Gardner Minshew but the once vaunted defense has crumbled into the dust with a chain of recent departures. Only Joe Schubert, linebacker from the Browns, has come the other way in terms of a high profile capture.

Lots to do in the draft and they do have a dozen picks to work with. I think they will sit at #9 and see who falls into their lap before probably bundling up some late picks to possibly get another 2nd or 3rd rounder. This is where I think it is dependent on who the Panthers take at #7 ahead of them. In this scenario the Panther took Okudah which leaves the Jaguars with Derrick Brown, which is a good result and a definite need. It could very easily go the other way round which would leave Jags with Okudah.

So, with the 9th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Jacksonville Jaguars select, Derrick Brown, defensive tackle, Auburn.

10. Cleveland Browns “The Prove it year”

Picks (7) – 10, 41, 74, 97, 115, 187, 244

Oh how it all fell apart last year. After the offseason fanfare the Browns began 2019 being talked up into a playoff spot and a run at a championship. Then we all watched as discord broke out on an almost weekly basis. Baker Mayfield’s production dropped. OBJ didn’t look happy, neither did Jarvis Landry at times. Freddie Kitchens could not keep this talented group of individuals together as a team. The result – 6-10, and Kitchens was gone. Kevin Stefanski is in and the Browns doubled-down in free agency with big money signings such as Jack Conklin and Austin Hooper. Much is expected, again.

Now I think there is room in amongst picks 10-12 for movement. The Browns are set at wide receiver, and have other pressing needs. However, the two teams behind them, the Jets and Raiders could both have eyes on getting their first choice wide receiver. The Raiders, ever bold in the Manock / Gruden era are going to deal and the Browns can probably afford to fall a couple of spots and still get their player, plus additional pick(s).

Back to ProFootball Network for the trade details to be verified.
TRADE – CLE #10 for LV #12 #80 and a 2021 5th rounder

When the Browns do get on the clock at pick #12 it turns out they can further support their offensive line with possibly the most pro-ready left tackle of the class, Andrew Thomas.

With the 12th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select, Andrew Thomas, offensive tackle, Georgia.

11. New York Jets “All set to improve”

Picks (7) – 11, 48, 68, 79, 120, 158, 191

The Jets have been active in free agency, particularly with a view to adding greater protection for Sam Darnold. The acquisitions of George Fant and Connor McGovern may mean that the Jets can focus elsewhere with their first round draft pick. The loss of Robby Anderson is not offset by picking up Breshad Perriman from the Bucs and I think the Jets will focus on taking the best receiver on offer with pick #11.

With the 11th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the New York Jets select, CeeDee Lamb, wide receiver, Oklahoma.

12. Las Vegas Raiders “Always the wildcard”

Picks (8) – 12, 19, 80, 81, 91, 121, 159, 226

As mentioned above I think the Raiders will look to leapfrog the Jets in order to take their pick of the wide receivers on offer. Their free agency signings were very much focused on adding depth to their defense which leaves them free to go after key offense positions early in the draft.

With the 10th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Las Vegas Raiders select, Jerry Jeudy, wide receiver, Alabama.

13 San Francisco 49ers “Like for like”

Picks (7) – 3, 31, 156, 176, 210, 217, 245

This is the pick the 49ers gained in trading DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts. This was a move which made sense for both teams but for the 49ers in particular it gives them the opportunity to draft a like for like replacement to their defensive line at a fraction of the cost. Excellent roster building strategy from GM John Lynch. It will be interesting to see if their guy is not still there at #13 – if not then expect them to trade back as they have precious few early picks.

With the 13th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the San Francisco 49ers select, Javon Kinlaw, defensive tackle, South Carolina.

14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers “What does Tom need?”

Picks (7) – 14, 45, 76, 117, 139, 161, 194

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the equation is simple. They have signed Tom Brady for the next 2 years. Their defense is a top-10 unit, particularly in run defense. On offense they have options for TB12 to find – they just need to keep him upright and provide a complementary run game. This is Bruce Arians swan song and he is all out for a championship. If round 1 pans out like this then it is a simple call, take a top-rated tackle to keep Tom on his feet, then come back for the running back in either round 2 or 3.

With the 14th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select, Jedrick Wills, offensive tackle, Alabama.

15 Denver Broncos “Lots to play with”

Picks (10) 15, 46, 77, 83, 95, 118, 178, 237, 251, 254,

The Denver Broncos are now looking to kick on with Drew Lock at the helm as their starting QB. They have plenty of draft capital to play with this year with 5 picks in the top 100. It will be interesting to see how they use that value but, for now, I think they stay at #15 and have the opportunity to replace veteran CB Chris Harris (lost to divisional rivals LA Chargers) with a top prospect at the same position.

With the 15th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Denver Broncos select, CJ Henderson, cornerback, Florida.

16 Atlanta Falcons “Defense the priority”

Picks (7) – 16, 47, 78, 119, 143, 228, 230

The Atlanta Falcons are in a position where they can field an offense entirely of 1st round draft picks next year – that is astonishing. Now, they have all found their way to Atlanta by a variety of routes and career ups and downs but it does mean they can look to revamp their defense in the draft. Everyone could run on them last year and that needs fixing, starting with their first round pick.

With the 16th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Atlanta Falcons select, K’Lavon Chaisson, edge rusher, LSU.

That brings us to the halfway point of round 1. Still plenty of talent on the board as we enter picks 17-24 next time. Some teams have a second pick, some still with their first to take – and maybe others who may want to try and gate crash the first round?

NFL Mock Draft 2020 Round 1 – part 1 (picks 1-8)

With just under a month to go the 2020 NFL Draft I wanted to jot down some quick takeaways on the issues each team faces which may help map out what they will do come draft day, specifically in round one. Starting at the top with Cincinnati, let’s look through the first 8 teams who, perhaps, have the biggest decisions to make in order to revive their fortunes.

Throughout this mock draft I’ve used the PFN Mock Draft Simulator to help work out potential trades and scenarios – https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

1. Cincinnati Bengals “Hey Joe”

Picks (7 in total) – top pick in each round

The pick for the Bengals is obvious. Select your franchise QB for the next decade, Joe Burrow, in the hope that his College numbers at LSU translate into NFL statistics in the years to come. The Bengals have made some moves in free agency (notably shoring up the secondary with Trae Waynes and Vonn Bell and placing franchise tag on AJ Green). There is a potentially nice supporting cast on offense with Green and Tyler Boyd to target, Joe Mixon to develop the play-action system with (and keep any defense honest) and a o-line which will hopefully stay healthy in 2020.

The other factor here is that there are very few teams with the sort of draft capital which could persuade the Bengals to drop from #1. Carolina have been mooted as a possible given the Joe Brady LSU connection with Burrow but the picks to offer just are not there, with Bengals unlikely to accept ‘jam tomorrow’ in terms of 2021 picks. So I think despite the potential for drama (could Bengals take Chase Young?) Cincinnati will open the draft with the blindingly obvious.

With the first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Cincinnati Bengals select Joe Burrow, Quarterback, LSU.

2. Washington Redskins “Open for business?”

Picks (7) – 2, 66, 108, 142, 162, 216, 229

Washington look like a team in the midst of rebuild with new Head Coach Ron Rivera looking to overhaul a good portion of the roster. When it comes to the draft they have a real issue – 7 picks with only 2 of those picks across rounds 1-3. Unless they can pick up some real later round gems they may need to trade out of the second spot in order to secure additional draft capital in those early rounds. By doing so they would have to accept missing out on the player with the unenviable label of ‘the best player in the draft’, Chase Young.

The Redskins are also going to need the chatter around QBs to hit fever pitch in order to make a team with the draft capital to offer (e.g. Miami Dolphins) anxious enough to move up. For the purposes of this mock I’m going to propose that Miami do want to move up for Tua Tagovailoa and the additional early picks are too much for Washington to ignore.

TRADE! – WAS #2 for MIA #5 #18 #39
(NB for Trades I’m plugging it into PFN mock simulator to see what is accepted)

Therefore when they get to pick #5 the Washington Redskins select Tristan Wirfs, offensive tackle, Iowa.

Now, to explain, I think in this scenario the Redskins are going to prioritise protecting Dwayne Haskins, particularly in light of their inability to work things out with Trent Williams. The Redskins were no doubt hoping for a suitable trade, probably to get back a 2nd rounder, but that has not materialised. Getting their choice of first tackle off the board is a good result for the Redskins, with the ability to come back for another first rounder on defense at #18.

3. Detroit Lions “On the block”

Picks (8) – 3, 35, 67, 85, 109, 149, 168, 182

For me, the Detroit Lions war room is the one under the most pressure. Both the Head Coach, Matt Patricia, and the General Manager, Bob Quinn, have the words “we need to be playing meaningful football in December (from owner Martha Firestone Ford) ringing in their ears. The Lions sit in an NFC North where they could make a run with both the Bears and Vikings in varying states of roster flux (Vikings retooling much of an ageing defense and now without Stefan Diggs, and the Bears seeking to recover from a disappointing 2019). However, the Lions free agency was eye-catching for the wrong reasons with the acrimonious departure of star CB Darius Slay and some high $ moves for less than stellar acquisitions.

They need to knock the draft out of the park and have decent draft capital (4 picks in top 100). In this scenario they would have the luxury of defensive stars Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Isaiah Simmons or Derrick Brown to choose from. I ran the scenario through PFN and TDN multiple times (as I am a Giants fan and wanted to remain impartial). The result was a very nice start for the Lions.

With the 3rd pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Detroit Lions select, Chase Young, defensive end, The Ohio State University.
4. New York Giants “The dilemma”

Picks (10) – 4, 36, 99, 110, 150, 183, 218, 238, 247, 255

Two glaring needs for the G-Men, both with equal weighting. They need to find the left tackle who will help keep QB Daniel Jones upright for the next decade and to open up running lanes for star running back Saquon Barkley. However, they also need high quality defensive talent, badly. Their free agency moves have been mainly to beef up depth on the roster, there was not the one marquee signing some were expecting.

Here is where the Giants are also going to need to rely on the QB market heating up. They need to try and work in an additional day 2 pick from somewhere. The loss of the early 3rd rounder for Leonard Williams hurts the Giants and is often quoted as another of Dave Gettlemen’s questionable roster moves (alongside, I would argue, getting into a situation where Janoris Jenkins gets cut for nothing as opposed to an earlier mid-season trade for an additional pick).

In this scenario the Dolphins have already moved up and the teams below them in need of a future QB (Chargers and Panthers) may simply wait to see if Justin Herbert and Jordan Love (the likely next 2 QBs off the rank) fall to them without giving up picks. I’m expecting that no trade is forthcoming here and the Giants have to pick at #4. With that in mind I think Gettlemen may go against the ‘hog-mollie’ instincts to select a defensive icon the franchise has been crying out for since the days of Strahan, Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP.

Therefore, with the 4th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the New York Giants select, Isaiah Simmons, linebacker, Clemson.
5. Miami Dolphins “Plenty to offer”

Picks (14) – 5, 18, 26, 39, 56, 70, 141, 153, 154, 173, 185, 227, 246, 251

The Dolphins are in a full blown roster reboot and part 1 of the overhaul has seen several high profile free agents arrive, most notably on defense with Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson.

As already noted above the Dolphins do have the draft capital to trade up to #2 in order to secure Tua Tagovailoa as their QB, with the ability to sit him behind Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2020 (a very capable placeholder for 12 months). The cost of trading up (picks 5, 18 and 39) still leave the Dolphins with enough picks across the first two days (26, 56, 70) to add potential day 1 starters to the roster. They also have a further 8 day-3 picks which they could package up to dip back into the 4th round to secure more good value rookies.

So, with the 2nd pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Miami Dolphins select, Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama.
6. LA Chargers “Stick or twist”

Picks (7) – 6, 37, 71, 112, 151, 186, 220

The LA Chargers are moving on in 2020. Moving on from Philip Rivers and moving into the new SoFi stadium in LA. They made nice moves in free agency, adding Bryan Bulaga at right tackle and Linval Joseph (DT) and Chris Harris (CB) on to the defense. Their draft capital is okay with one high pick in each round so they should be able to secure 3 or 4 very promising rookies. But where to start?

This may depend on how much they like Justin Herbert as their long-term QB. They appear to be happy to stick with Tyrod Taylor for 2020 but they will need that decision to pay off quickly with wins next season, particularly in an increasingly competitive AFC West with the Super Bowl winning Chiefs, the ever-busy and upward trending Raiders and a Denver Broncos franchise which looks like it has its act together in terms of roster-building.

I think this is a nice spot for the Chargers to take Herbert and I believe they can let the draft come to them and still pick him up without giving up any additional draft capital. The situation is well set with Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler, giving Herbert plenty of targets as and when he steps up to lead the offense.

With the 6th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the LA Chargers select, Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.
7. Carolina Panthers “Rhule Revolution”

Picks (8) – 7, 38, 69, 113, 148, 152, 184, 221

Matt Rhule and company have been tearing it down in Carolina since his appointment as Head Coach. It has been like a revolving door with the Panthers – the most notable position change has been that Cam is out and Teddy Bridgewater is in as the starting QB. This may mean that the Panthers pass on selecting a QB in this draft.

It is clear this is a long haul project for Rhule (with the security of a 7-year contract) and he has a mantra of taking fast, athletic, tough young prospects in the knowledge that he backs his coaching staff to hone their skills.

Like the Chargers, the Panthers have one pick in each of the first four rounds, and I think they can sit tight at #7 in the knowledge that they will still be able to draft a very good starting piece on either side of the ball. With the way the first 6 picks have panned out they could have the choice of CB Jeff Okudah or DT Derrick Brown. Either would be great picks and I think on balance using the mantra of building back-to-front they would go for Okudah.

With the 7th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Carolina Panthers select Jeffrey Okudah, cornerback, The Ohio State University.

8. Arizona Cardinals “Upwardly mobile”

Picks (6) – 8, 72, 114, 131, 202, 222

The Arizona Cardinals are going places. This message was exemplified in their free agency capture of star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins from the Houston Texans. Kyle Murray had a very impressive rookie campaign and their 5-10-1 record suggested, at times, that Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has the franchise headed in the right direction.

Now that Murray has numerous targets to throw to, I think the Cardinals will focus on keeping him well-protected so I’d look for them to go offensive tackle and to take the biggest guy of the lot!

With the 8th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft the Arizona Cardinals select Mekhi Becton, offensive tackle, Louisville.

The wrinkle here is that the Cardinals could look to trade back in order to obtain an additional day 2 pick but the most likely partner, the Las Vegas Raiders, is unlikely to be able to offer the necessary draft capital. In using the PFN simulator it took offering #12 and #19 to trade up which is probably too rich for Mayock and Gruden.

Next up – picks #9 through #16 – any more trades in the offing?

The QB Crystal Ball

As we approach the first key dates for offseason free agency and the 2020 Draft, a number of stories both confirmed and unconfirmed have appeared. Out of these stories, further narratives are starting to gain interest and traction. Then it is a case of pick your poison because no one really knows at this point – Brady is staying or going, Cam Newton is staying or going, Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, the list of QBs with unclear futures seems endless this off season. So, before any more wild theories are debunked by the truth let’s see how this may all pan out….

Let’s look into the QB Crystal Ball

Name: Philip Rivers

What advice do you seek? I’m looking for a fresh start after being cut by my long-term partner, the LA Chargers

Advice – Hmmm, it seems as though you have been the one trying hardest to keep this relationship going over the last 16 years. Only 2 playoff appearances in the last decade is a poor return, and now. at the age of 38, the Chargers have decided to part company with you.

This may be a blessing in disguise. It is clear that you feel there is at least one good season left and you have moved your family back to Florida and although this does not necessarily point to where the next team may be based there are candidates ‘way out east’. The first, and possibly most attractive, are the Indianapolis Colts. A solid o-line, good running game and well-built roster and management through Chris Ballard are all plus points. There is good history with Frank Reich (Chargers QB Coach and OC with Rivers between 2013-2015. Throw in that the Colts had 10-dome games next year and the Colts is a nice place for a swan song. It would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brissett and could allow Indianapolis to draft a QB 2nd round to sit behind you for 1-2 years.

Other destinations have been mentioned – the Bucs and Panthers in particular. The Bucs have the targets at WR but does Bruce Arians really replace one youthful gunslinger for a veteran equivalent? The Panthers feel like a franchise in complete reboot mode and you may want a franchise with a better chance of a dart at the playoffs. The Colts feel like the best fit here.

Name: Tom Brady

What advice do you seek? After many successful years with my long-term partner it feels like we are drifting apart and maybe I should look elsewhere?

Advice: Hmmm, the 2019 season was the lowest point for you in the last 4 years. Lowest yards per attempt, lowest % completion rate, lowest QB rating. It is not all on you though. There is obvious frustration with the pieces around you and this was evident throughout the season. Gronk has gone. Edelman’s skills are also declining. The Patriots mis-fired in the 2019 draft at WR. And yet. The aura is still there. Rumours of New England still willing to offer $30M a year circle, as does one of the Las Vegas Raiders seeking to offer a 2-year deal out in the desert.

This one feels so big it is almost impossible to get a read on it. Usually the New England Patriots move on from ageing veterans rather than cling on hoping for a late renaissance. But this is Tom Brady we are talking about. Even Bill Belichick may accept to roll the dice one more time and it looks as though Josh McDaniels will remain the OC next season. Familiarity with the system may go a long way. However, the Raiders could be a tempting prospect. Through Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden, the Raiders are headed in the right direction. With another 2 first round draft picks this year the Raiders could supply greater support on offense.

The Chargers have also been mooted but would they swap one veteran QB for another? They do need a ‘name’ at QB to help draw in some semblance of a home crowd but their roster is not on the same upward curve as the Raiders. It does look like Derek Carr could be the odd one out here but Brady to the Raiders is too good to ignore. Oh and the Raiders play the Patriots next year too….

Name: Cam Newton

What advice do you seek? After a difficult time with injuries I don’t think I’m wanted anymore.

Advice: Hmmm, you are entering the final year of the current contract and carry a substantial cap hit for the Panthers at around $19M. And you are coming off a complete write off of a 2019 season. First a torn rotator cuff then a Lisfranc injury have put fitness and mobility front and centre. The Panthers, and owner David Tepper, are in limbo waiting to see proof of your fitness. Even if you are able to prove your fitness the Panthers may seek to keep you around but probably only for the next year.

Should the Panthers seek to trade where could you end up? You are a QB with star power, so this means looking for a market which needs its stars. Step forward the LA Chargers. They are moving on from a QB with a distinct lack of mobility so if you can prove you are still an all-action hero it could be the ideal switch. Think of the boost to ticket sales, something the Chargers need to do. Yes the Chargers could draft a QB this year but, sat at #6 with little to offer in additional picks, they may miss out. Go west Cam, go west.

Name: Sean Payton

What advice do you seek? I’ve got 3 QBs and I’m not sure which ones to keep.

Advice: Hmmm, the QB room is stacked with talent in New Orleans: Drew Brees, Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater. However, there are decisions to make around all 3 this offseason after another year of heartbreak and underperformance in the playoffs. Drew Brees is 41 years old and currently mulling over whether to spin the wheel one more time with you and the Saints. For Brees it is New Orleans or retirement. It was another good season for Brees and you have proved you can adapt playcalling to suit the talents of the QBs. There is a ‘but’ coming.

In the playoff loss to the Vikings the ‘X’ factor was not Drew Brees, but Taysom Hill. He is your ‘swiss-army knife’ able to run, throw, catch, block punts, anything and everything. Had he been on the field for more snaps in the playoff loss the Saints may well have won through. Hill has been with New Orleans for 3 seasons now and for the last 2 he has appeared in every game taking a small percentage of the snaps. He has been quoted recently as seeing himself as a franchise QB. There is a relatively small sample size at present but enough that New Orleans is considering putting him as a restricted free agent, possibly with a 1st round price tag attached in order to flush out any interest.

It is doubtful that another team will gamble on Hill as their starter at this point in time. What is more likely is that the Brees/Hill combination could start to share out offensive snaps to a greater degree. With your innovative and ever-evolving playacting that could just turn out to be the best way forward for the Saints to greater success next year. The odd man out is likely to be Bridgewater but that may be no bad thing for him. He started 5 straight games when Brees was injured last season and he took care of the ball. Bridgewater could do a nice job elsewhere in the league and would be another candidate for the Chargers if they decided to steer clear of the headlines and go for an efficient if unspectacular new starting QB.

The quick-fire round!

Marcus Mariota – find a team willing to take you on as a backup in a Taysom Hill style role.
Bruce Arians – stick with Jameis Winston. You’ve just got his eyes fixed, you may as well see if that was the problem all along! Short-term 2 or 3 year prove it deal.
Jerry Jones – for pity’s sake just sign Dak to a new contract, what else you gonna do? Pay the man.
Ryan Pace – you can’t leave Trubisky with no-one pushing him to be better in that QB room. Go get Andy Dalton from the Bengals and try to light a fire under Mitch.
Ryan Tannehill – take the new contract offer which will come from the Titans, but hey don’t get greedy, you were good but it is still a small sample size.
Bill Belichick – yes you are right to let Brady go, painful though that is you knew the day would come. Now is the time for a safe, efficient, interim leader and Teddy Bridgewater could be the guy.
Derek Carr – don’t trust anything that comes out of Jon Gruden’s mouth. Keep an open mind, it is only a matter of time before Gruden’s head gets turned.

All, any or none of this could happen in the next month. Should be a lot of fun finding out!

Hail to the Chiefs!

It is in the record books. Super Bowl LIV. San Francisco 49ers 20 – 31 Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs first Super Bowl win in 50 years, and the second in their franchise history in the NFL. Before kick off the common consensus was this could be a coin flip game versus the best all round team (49ers) and the team with probably the most exciting player on offense (Chiefs, QB Pat Mahomes). Talking points aplenty as the Chiefs lifted the Lombardi Trophy, here are my takeaways.

Two Key 4th Qtr Moments

(9:52 left)

Pat Mahomes had just thrown his second INT of the game (on back-to-back drives). The 49ers were approaching midfield and Jimmy Garoppolo had completed 9 of his previous 10 passes for 106 yards. One more clock-chewing drive resulting in a TD (or even a FG) could have all but sealed the title for the 49ers. It was 2nd and 9, play-action called, the Chiefs brought pressure but Jimmy G had Deebo Samuel open for a first down on a slant route – and he sailed it way over Samuel’s head with way too much juice. The throw had to be made. That was followed by an offside penalty and a long 3rd down not made. The ensuing punt gave the Chiefs the ball and Pat Mahomes the time to craft the comeback.

(7:13 left)

At this point the 49ers were nursing a 10-point lead and had the Chiefs 3rd and 15 at their own 35 yard line. Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes went for broke as Tyreek Hill was found all alone to move deep into San Francisco territory. Until this play the Niners defense had taken away the vertical threat of the Chiefs through a combination of their superior pass rush and a well-disciplined secondary playing cautiously deep off the Chiefs receivers. Then the 49ers secondary gave Pat Mahomes the smallest of opportunities and he took full advantage. The problem with playing the Chiefs is you have to defend for the full 60 minutes, in the first 54 minutes of the Super Bowl the 49ers gave up 10 points – then in the last 6 minutes they gave up 21 points.

Following the completion to Tyreek Hill the Niners secondary gave up a defensive pass interference call placed at the 1-yard line. when Tavarius Moore found himself all alone and unable to compete against Travis Kelce (a rare Robert Saleh mistake in defensive playcalling resulting in the mismatch opportunity for Kansas City). Throw in Richard Sherman getting beat by Sammy Watkins for 38 yards on the Chiefs next drive and the tide had truly turned.

After looking completely broken just minutes before, the Chiefs O-line regrouped and chipped away at Nick Bosa and company to give Pat Mahomes just enough time to torch a secondary which imploded in the last 6 minutes of the game.

The Truck and the Trailer

On the Move the Sticks podcast Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks have described how QBs can either be a ‘truck’ (they have the ability to lead or even drag their team with them – they can put the team on their back) or a ‘trailer’ where the QB is more of a game manager, using the sum of the parts available to him to craft the offense. Super Bowl LIV was a match up of a truck (Mahomes) versus a trailer (Garoppolo). Their stat lines were:

Pat Mahomes 26/42 286 yards 2 TD 2 INT (Rating 78.1)
Jimmy Garoppolo 20/31 219 yards 1 TD 2 INT (Rating 69.2)

Neither would state they had their best game. Mahomes’ award of MVP shows unmistakable QB bias. For 3 and a half quarters he had looked decidedly ordinary with no vertical threat options to find. Jimmy G had been steady early on if unspectacular but hit stride during the 3rd quarter as the 49ers stretched into the lead. Both had thrown jarring interceptions which could have had serious consequences for either side. Both had trouble putting the ball ‘on the money’ with incompletions and failing to hit receivers in stride, denying much by way of yards after catch.

However, in that 4th quarter Mahomes got hot and Garoppolo went cold. In the go-ahead drive Mahomes went 5 of 5 while Jimmy G could not answer throwing 3 straight incompletions, including missing an open Emmanuel Sanders which would have resulted in a TD and a Niners 27-24 lead with 1:30 to go (how interesting a finale could that have been!). The truck stepped up and put the Chiefs on his back, the trailer could not respond. Other throws were missed, targets not seen by Jimmy G as he failed to work effectively through his progressions on certain key plays.

The defeat is not on the QB alone, not by any means, but the result (and the Chiefs playoff run more widely) demonstrated that if you have a truck at QB you are always in the game. If you have a trailer you cannot count on him to be able to go toe-to-toe.

The Fear Factor?

A lot will be made of Niners Head Coach Kyle Shanahan’s Super Bowl woes. OC when the Atlanta Falcons were 28-3 up and now HC with the 49ers in a 10-point lead late in the 4th quarter – and no rings to show for it. He is a brilliant Head Coach and in tandem with the leadership from GM John Lynch the San Francisco 49ers are back in contention and primed for a period of sustained success in the NFL.

In the big game though there were a couple of head-scratching moments that pointed to a lack of faith in the offense, and a fear of Pat Mahomes and his capabilities (or at least a too healthy respect). Approaching half time the Chiefs were forced to punt. If the 49ers had called the first of their three time outs they would then have had around 1:50 and 2 time outs to at least take a 3-point lead into the half. Instead they let the clock wind down in order to have 0:59 and 3 time outs. Admittedly it was a 50:50 (or maybe 60:40) offensive pass interference call against George Kittle which killed the drive but with the extra minute they could have still made FG range. It simply smacked of being scared to give Mahomes the ball back before half time as opposed to backing your offense to score and bleed the clock (something they have done all season).

The 49ers also chose to kick a FG on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter when 4th and 2 at KC 24. The Chiefs had no such issue with going for it, twice completing similar short yardage 4th downs in order to accrue their early 10-3 lead. Andy Reid backed his offense in key situations, Kyle Shanahan strangely did not. The Niners had had their way with NFC opponents through their stress free playoff run, not being tested in sudden death competition whereas the Chiefs had been, at times, flying by the seat of their pants since the first half versus the Houston Texans.

Defenses do win Championships (just sometimes it is not the best ones)

Steve Spagnuolo has done a tremendous job with the Kansas City Chiefs defense. It is by no means the best in the league, or anywhere near. But ‘Spags’ has a habit of getting his D to play its toughest football in the most high pressure situations (as he did previously with the Giants SBXLVI run). It was reminiscent of the ‘bend but don’t break’ principle. They gave up yards and points but they kept the 49ers within touching distance. Then when they needed to in the 4th Qtr the D stepped up. Spags knew what was on the line and his D brought the pressure, stifling the run and blitzing Jimmy G. The 49ers went punt, punt, turnover on downs, INT in the 4th quarter. The D had done enough.

Mention must also go to the 49ers defense and Robert Salah, which for all but the last 6 minutes was imperious against the Chiefs. The vertical threat had been taken away and the pass rush increasingly homed in on their target – the Chiefs #15. By the end of the 3rd quarter the offensive line’s attempt at a QB pocket had degraded away to nothing. Mahomes was scrambling almost every play – the only way he managed to gain most of his positive yardage at that point was on the run. The 49ers D is now an established top-5 unit in the NFL and it should continue to be so.

Final Thoughts

This was a great game and a great way to end the NFL’s 100th season. It was a pleasure to watch (probably) the 2 best teams in the league go 12 rounds with the momentum swinging back and forth.

Why did the Kansas City Chiefs win? I’d say that ultimately they stuck to their game plan to a greater degree whereas the 49ers let their concerns relating to the explosive nature of the Mahomes-led offense seep into their own offensive playcalling. And then guess what did for them…

It was fascinating from an X’s and O’s perspective to watch Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan trade blows throughout. Their was great play-design, particularly early on before the pressure grew. At the end when, to an extent the playbook goes out of the window, it was the truck able to adapt, improvise and go off-road whereas the trailer could not change direction.

Roll on the NFL Combine and the 2020 Draft!

(image telegraph.co.uk)

 

 

Super Bowl LIV – what will be this year’s Miami miracle?

We have arrived. Thirty-two teams have, over the course of the last five months, been whittled down to two. The AFC Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, will take on the NFC Champions, the San Francisco 49ers, in Miami on Sunday 2nd February.

The 49ers dismantled the Green Bay Packers (37-20) in the NFC Championship game whereas the Chiefs withstood early pressure from the Tennessee Titans before leaving them far behind in the rear view mirror (35-24) as the game progressed. In both cases the better team won, and the resulting Super Bowl matchup promises to be a classic. What could be the keys to who walks off with the Vince Lombardi trophy?

49ers offense vs Chiefs defense

On the ground a running back committee (Breida, Mostert, Coleman) has each taken their turn to carry the load and capitalise on well-designed run blocking schemes masterminded by HC Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers have had the knack of quickly assessing what is working on offense in a particular game and then going all-in to capitalise.

However, the 49ers are not one dimensional. The 49ers have been one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL this year (approx. 52% pass to 48% run). Jimmy Garoppolo has proved he can move the ball downfield efficiently and with reliable targets such as Deebo Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle, San Francisco can be as much a threat through the air as on the ground. So, how can the Kansas City Chiefs stop a team which averaged 29.9 points per game through the regular season. Well, the Chiefs are coming off a game where they beat the only team in the NFL to average more points than the 49ers, the Ravens.

There are some similarities here for the Chiefs defense. Their 29th rated (DVOA) run defense stopped Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship game (19 carries for 69 yards, paltry by Henry’s standards). This is where you have to credit Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive game plans. Spags came into Kansas City this year with a brief to shore up with Chiefs defense, and they have improved throughout the year. Against the Titans the Chiefs committed to stopping the run – in some cases employing goal-line defense formations in midfield. I think it will be more of the same in the Super Bowl.

If the Chiefs can stop or at least slow down the run then they will need to protect the middle of the field against Garoppolo, which is going to require Daniel Sorensen and Anthony Hitchens to really step up. Take away his throws between the numbers and force him to throw to the outside, this will test his accuracy. It will also slow his release down and hopefully allow the Kansas pass rush led by Chris Jones and Frank Clark to get to Jimmy G – and Spags loves to blitz! And if Tyrann Mathieu repeats his AFC Championship performance then just maybe the Chiefs defense can limit the 49ers enough to give their offense chance to keep pace.

Chiefs offense vs 49ers defense

In stark contrast to the balance of the 49ers offense the Chiefs are almost entirely reliant on the performance of the best player on the pitch come Sunday, Patrick Mahomes. His performances during the run to the Super Bowl have proved his importance with an increase in his duel threat to defenses. During the first half of the AFC Championship there were only 3 plays that did not involve Mahomes. The 49ers know that Damien Williams is not going to carry the ball 20 times on Sunday – the focus will be on getting to Mahomes.

The Chiefs have the offensive tools to score heavily – Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and of course Travis Kelce. If the 49ers defense cannot get to Mahomes the Chiefs will move the ball quickly. The Chiefs also have the mastermind of Andy Reid calling the plays – and because of the potential dominance of the 49ers defense I would expect to see some level of mis-direction from Reid in order to put the niners on the back foot. The Chiefs need to get the niners D to hesitate even for a split second in order to give Mahomes the time he needs. Using DVOA statistics it is the Chiefs 2nd rated pass offense versus the 49ers 2nd rated pass defense. Something has to give.

The 49ers defense is about as complete a unit as there has been in the NFL. Strength everywhere – Bosa, Buckner, Alexander, Armstead, Ford, Williams, Warner, Sherman….. It has been a daunting prospect for opposing offenses. And yet. The sheer potential explosiveness of the Chiefs weapons and Reid’s playcalling may just open up enough windows for Mahomes to work his magic. Just the thoughts of the Chiefs comeback against the Texans may put the 49ers on the backfoot even if not intentionally – I’m sure Robert Salah will be telling them to attack but what if? The Chiefs will take shots downfield.

If I am the 49ers I watch the tape of…..

…..the Chiefs week 4 win over the Detroit Lions 34-30, it may have been a win but only just as Detriot’s offense ran and passed their way downfield at will.
…..the Chiefs week 10 loss to the Tennessee Titans 32-35, where the Titans stats on offense probably mirror what the 49ers will be trying to achieve with balance on the ground (Henry 188 yards 2 TDs) and through the air (Tannehill 181 yards 2 TDs)
If I am the Chiefs I watch the tape of…….

…..the 49ers week 14 win over the New Orleans Saints 48-46, because if the Chiefs are to win it is likely via a shootout and Drew Brees carved up the niners in the way Mahomes will need to.
…..the week 10 and week 17 divisional match ups against the Seattle Seahawks – one win one loss on a last gasp goal line tackle. (What would have happened if that tackle had not been
made…). Pete Carroll may well be on Andy Reid’s speed dial this week!

SO……keys to victory

Chiefs – stop/slow the run, force Jimmy G to throw outside, then mis-direction and speed on offence

49ers – get to Mahomes, defend the deep threat, dominate the clock to keep Mahomes on the sideline

AND……my Super Bowl prediction

The 49ers are the best team and Patrick Mahomes is the best player on the pitch. The Niners have Kittle, the Chiefs have Kelce. The Niners have Sherman, the Chiefs have the Honey Badger. There are so many facets to this game. It promises to be special. I don’t think the Chiefs D can stop the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling. And I don’t think the 49ers can stop the sheer will and magic of Pat Mahomes. There will be points and lots of them.

Ultimately I am going to go with team over individual and the old mantra of defenses win championships. The 49ers to win this by one score.

San Francisco 49ers 38 – 34 Kansas City Chiefs

And the MVP? George Kittle! He blocks to get the Niners +150 yards on the ground and has 100 yards receiving with 2 TDs.

The end of the NFL’s 100th season will be a classic.