The New York Giants have entered free agency in crisis. With the release of Landon Collins, one of the key pieces and highest rated performers on the Giants defense over the last 3 years, the Giants’ front office has come under intense scrutiny as to what on earth the plan is to improve the roster for a team which has only won 8 games in the last 2 years.
The Giants have a number of areas on the roster to improve on; both O-line and D-line, Edge Rusher, Linebacker, Secondary, and of course a plan for the future at Quarterback. In order to do this ideally the G-Men would have either cap space, an armful of draft picks or both. Unfortunately they have neither. Dave Gettlemen has come in for some quite vociferous criticism but, looking at his predicament, who would want his job? He is still picking up the pieces of spectacular mismanagement in the latter years of former GM Jerry Reese both in terms of poor drafting and expensive free agency misses (many of whom are now either gone or heading towards the exit).
Most of the draft talk for the Giants 1st round pick has been in relation to drafting Eli’s successor, with Dwayne Haskins the pick. However, do that and they have 1 pick in the 2nd round, none in the 3rd so in order to bulk up the roster they would have to hope that they hit some home runs in the late 3rd day rounds. In to that mix add in that they may need to trade up in order to get Haskins as he may not be there at no.6.
Let’s look at 2 scenarios – one where NYG secures Haskins, one where they pass in favour of plugging other gaps in the roster.
1. Trade up to get Haskins
Looking at the Trade Value Chart the Giants could trade up to no.4 with the Raiders without the cost being too high. The Raiders are in rebuild mode and the prospect of more picks may be tempting. By doing this the Giants may be able to block other sides trading up as the cost of going to pick no.2 (49ers) or no.3 (Jets) could be too high for teams behind the Giants.
The cost of moving up could be a 3rd round pick and a 5th rounder going to Oakland. The Giants have 3 in the 5th round so that is easy to give up. But they don’t have a 3 to give……..unless…… they trade Olivier Vernon before the draft (a mid round 3rd pick sounds about right in value), or send Vernon to Oakland as part of the deal.
In this scenario the Giants get Haskins, keep their high 2nd, hope that Sam Beal works out (CB who cost the 3 in the supplemental draft last year) and then use their 2 picks in round 4 and 2 in round 5 to improve other positions (anyone found in round 6 & 7 is a bonus). They could even trade their high 4th and high 5th to get back into the latter stages of round 3.
So, this way, the Giants could net Haskins, plus only 2 other new shiny toys before hitting the latter rounds.
2. Miss Haskins and Trade down
In this scenario, as feared, the Giants get jumped and Haskins is gone by the team we reach pick no.6. If Haskins has gone then there is plenty of non-QB talent the Giants could snag even dropping a few spots. Let’s give them a trade partner around pick no.10 (Denver Broncos) – picks 9-11 are all AFC so could be teams Giants happy to do business with.
What would be the value here? The cost could well be Denver’s 3rd round pick and their late 4th rounder. As with scenario 1 let’s get a mid-3rd round pick for Olivier Vernon (it does seem like the Giants want him off the wage bill). We now have a first, second, two in the third and 3 in the fourth. Now we are dealing, as we have some capital. If I am Gettleman I want to get in late on round 2 for another pick.
Three possible trade partners here with 2 picks late in round 2 – Houston, New England and Kansas City (let’s choose KC for the modelling). I think the Giants could send a 3, 4 and 5 in return for a late 2nd rounder. What does that give the Giants?
They would be looking at: Round 1 (10), Round 2 (37 and 61), Round 3 (77), Round 4 (108 and 132), Round 5 (143 and 171). To me that looks much healthier than the current scenario.
Who could they take? Well in round 1 at pick no.10 they should still be able to secure someone of the calibre of ANDRE DILLARD (OT) or MONTEZ SWEAT (EDGE). If they still wanted to look at a QB then the additional pick in round 2 may come in handy, particularly if DANIEL JONES falls into day 2. The additional volume in picks in higher rounds (4 in first 3 rounds as opposed to currently they have 2) is going to provide an immediate injection of much needed youthful (and cheap) quality in to the roster.
Scenario 2 has the Giants following the Indianapolis Colts example of stacking up with youth and if that could be combined with a few quality additions of experienced veterans in free agency the Giants could go into 2019 in a much brighter spot than they are now.
All this requires willing trade partners but let’s face it – anything is possible on draft night!